Admiral Titley’s Three-Legged Stool

I hope you have enjoyed the background history of climate science. It becomes, for me, even more captivating to know the histories of our “philosophers of nature”, or scientists as we know them today. Their lives, driven by curiosity and dedicated to understanding God’s creation, are stunning examples of human persistence and determination. 

Today’s scientists are no less motivated. Today I will plagiarize one of our current scientists who I listened to speak at Michigan Tech. Retired Rear Admiral David Titley, Professor of Meteorology and Director of the Center for solutions to Weather and Climate Risk at Penn State, told us we can understand the veracity of climate science via the metaphor of a three-legged stool. To be stable a stool needs at least three legs. 

Here are the legs:

Leg 1. Through scientific method scientists understand the physics that govern our atmosphere.  Of course, I cannot understand in depth all the chemistry and physics about climate change. Sometimes I just set it aside and let my subconscious work on it.  Sometimes, after going at it from various angles multiple times, I still have trouble grasping every concept in depth. Then I look at the consensus. If 97% of the scientists agree and 100% of the reputable science organizations are in consensus I accept their work. When you get in an airplane, or when you buy a refrigerator, do you know all the science that makes these things work?  Note:  In 1861 John Tyndall, in his laboratory, made the greenhouse gas discovery. No lab since then has found his work in error.

Leg 2. Leg 2 is making scientific predictions. To make science useful, scientists make predictions.

Svante Arrhenius, based on John Tyndal’s scientific analysis of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, was the first person to predict that we could, and would, raise the average temperature of earth by burning coal. That was in the 1890s. His work has been examined and was challenged. The original examination was in the early 1900s. His peers then, and the science community today, agree his work was accurately computed and based on sound science. 

For lack of better description, scientists predict in reverse. They say if we can find ways to look back in time we should be able to find evidence supporting, or disputing, John Tyndal and Svante Arrhenius.

Leg 3. This leg is the leg that makes, or breaks, the work of the previous scientists. The instruments of Guy Stewart Callendar, and David Keeling made accurate CO2 measurements possible. Temperature measurement analysis done independently by NASA, NOAA, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office, and the Japanese Meteorological Agency all tell us that, even if we are experiencing cold weather here, the earth’s climate, when averaged out, is warming.

Looking back, verifying predictions in reverse, other scientists have examined sea-bed cores, ice cores from Greenland and Antarctic, boreholes, coral cores, tree rings, pond sediment layers, paleontological evidence*, and other proxy indicators. This earth library of information has been dug, bored and analyzed. It tells us that carbon dioxide is the primary driver that increases, or decreases, the earth’s temperature. In turn, it is the primary factor making or destroying our benign climate.

Admiral /Scientist David Titley’s stool has three sturdy legs. The climate science community has done its work correctly and in depth.

If not overburdened, Mother Earth has natural ways to cleanse herself of pollution(s). From 1890 to about 50 years ago, it was the hope of scientists that these natural processes might be able to keep up with our fossil fuel driven industrial revolution. Equipment designed by Charles Keeling decisively shows that Mother nature is like a boat taking on water. All hands are busy bailing carbon dioxide via photosynthesis. Mother Nature’s trees**, her plants, and her ocean phytoplankton are manning the photosynthesis pumps and bailing buckets. Unfortunately, despite Mother Earth’s best efforts, the ship is still sinking (but NOT sunk!).  Today, earth’s natural processes cannot keep up.  With our help, the ship, our blue planet home, cannot only be saved but made even more productive and climate serene.

52 years ago, Lyndon Johnson’s “President’s Science Advisory Committee” thoroughly evaluated pollution risks we faced then. Some of these like acid rain, the protective ozone layer, and lung damaging smog have were addressed fairly well.  But, we have failed to curb the climate altering use of fossil fuels. In 1965 we pushed 6 billion tons of CO2 into the air. Today we push, world-wide, 10 billion tons into the atmosphere. In support of the scientists, this is what LBJ said,  

“Society must take the position that no citizen, no industry, no municipality has the right to pollute.” 

Here was his bottom line guidance: “We must rely on economic incentives to discourage pollution.” 

Citizen’s Climate Lobby has only one focus. It is the economic incentive called, CF&D, or Carbon Pollution Fee coupled with a citizen’s return Dividend. Putting a price on carbon is the most widely recommended incentive promoted by economists to start healing of our atmosphere.  Economic studies examining the dividend tell us we will strengthen our economy through CF and D. For more go to citizensclimatelobby.org

*Paleontological simply means old, like me.  As in fossil. 

**Tip: The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today.  Earth and Arbor Days will be here soon. It is a good way to teach a child a little something about stewardship. Or, it would be a nice to plant a tree for someone you admire.

***Link to LBJ’s full statement: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=27355