There’s a Bear in the Factory!

I just read the US Army War College report on climate change. It starts like this, “Current conversations about climate change and its impacts are often rancorous and politically charged. As an organization that is, by law, non-partisan, the Department of Defense (DoD) is precariously unprepared for the national security implications of climate change-induced global security challenges.” The report is 50 pages long and chock full of information guaranteed to frighten the bee-gees-us out of you. It can, at times, be dull.  But there are enough shockers to keep you wide awake.  There is even relevant comic relief about human nature.  In my mind it is the key to why there is any disagreement at all. Here it is: 

In Frank Tashlin’s classic children’s book, “The Bear That Wasn’t”, a bear awakes from hibernation and, exiting his cave, finds himself in a huge factory that has been built over his forest home. Encountering a foreman, the bear is told to get back to work, to which the bear replies, “I don’t work here. I’m a bear.” Incredulous, the foreman says, “You’re not a bear. You are just a silly man who needs a shave and wears a fur coat.”

In previous columns I claimed climate change acceptance is not science literacy, nor I.Q. It is, unfortunately, our natural psychological makeup. The Army report, in its conclusion, reaffirms this.  In the kid’s bear book the factory is the USA. The foreman, the managers, and workers who have never seen a bear in any factory represent you and I. Our bear is rapid climate change. No human has seen this rapid global climate change in all time. Accepting this fact, is tough.

Unfortunately, we use psychological tricks to give ourselves false comfort which politicians and pundits shamefully exploit. These comfortable tricks the Army, Navy and Air Force cannot tolerate.  Their mission is to see the battlefield with clear eyes and to be straight shooters. As an academy graduate, I am proud to see the War College is not failing us.

The study called on the Pentagon to urgently prepare for the possibility that domestic power, water, food systems, and controls to counter the spread of insect borne diseases could all be at risk by 2050 due to observable, documented fact.

 If you understand the weather dynamics attacking the California power grid today, then you know the stress has already begun.

The authors also warn us we need to develop countermeasures against a hostile Russia who is rapidly developing its military presence along the Arctic seacoast as the Arctic ocean rapidly melts. Undersea oil is the lure for the Russians. This oil, if burnt, will certainly doom future generations. (This last sentence is my add).

The Mideast temperature and its oil politics will continue to heat, making it even tougher for our Army to operate in this environment.  

 Some countries like Bangladesh will simply submerge. The country has about 160 million people and 80 million are already at risk of near-term sea-level rise.  Given the adversarial history of Bangladesh’s nuclear-powered neighbors, Pakistan and India, the authors of the report considers it in our best interest to strengthen our relationships and plan with them to intelligently deal with the inevitable mass movement of climate refugees.

If you read the report, you will journey through the myriad of climate threats the US Army will face. In so doing, you will appreciate the depth and breadth of knowledge our top military minds must possess to come to grips with the many threats. These are generals like McMaster, Kelly, and Mattis who serve President Trump. (Oh, that’s right, they have been forced out.)

The senior US government officials who wrote the report are from several key agencies including the Army, Defense Intelligence Agency, and NASA.   

The report was commissioned by General Mark Milley, Trump's new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, making him the highest-ranking military officer in the country. The report puts him, and the authors of the study, at odds with Trump who refers to climate change as a hoax.

The report, titled Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army, was launched by the U.S. Army War College in partnership with NASA. I searched: Center for Climate and Security where I found the report and many more.

If Halloween wasn’t scary enough for you, then read the report. This report also has an edge. Our service leaders are not without firm and uncomfortable opinions: “It is useful to remind ourselves regularly of the capacity of human beings to persist in stupid beliefs in the face of significant, contradictory evidence.”

The evidence is the climate bear…and he’s in the factory.


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