189th Climate Model Pioneers prove they were reliable. Win Nobel Prize in Physics.

 

                              Heroes in their Own Time

When someone is awarded an honor posthumously it always saddens me the person of merit is not able to bask in their earned glory.

When Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselman, and Giorgi Parisi were honored with science’s most coveted award, the Nobel Prize in Physics, I was elated. Scientists Manabe’s and Hasselman’s awards were especially pleasing as they are 90 and 89 years of age, they are climate scientists, and they endured a lot of right-wing criticism for their groundbreaking work.  Today, while they are still alive, their tireless work has been granted the recognition deserved.

Climate modeling was their pioneering creation. Climate modeling is just a short term used to describe what the scientific process does: Identify a question, form a hypothesis or explanation, create an experiment, accumulate authentic data, analyze it and form a conclusion.

In this case the question is, “With the addition of man-made greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere how warm will the earth become and how will the weather change?” Manabe and Hasselman had to create a system, and apply the proven mathematical equations from physics, and correctly input these into super-computers.

For the scientific community their work has been accepted for decades. Climate modelers use “back-casting” to check their work. They simply enter data from previous decades and run the computers to see if it matches present day weather. And, when Manabe predicted from 1970 to 2000 the earth would warm 1.03 degrees F, missing it by only .06F, the science world took notice. Additionally, he and Hasselman have also been  proven accurate in regard to their modeling predictions about extreme weather, sea-level rise, and ocean currents.

Previous to the Nobel Medal, both scientiists have been recognized for their ground-breaking work. Manabe has received 10 prestigious awards.

Today, climate modeling is the norm. Most national meteorological organizations and climate research universities have very sophisticated models. If you want to dig deeper into “climate modelling” in Wikipedia, there are links to climate models at the end of the article.*

Why, in general, is the average citizens unacquainted with the work of these brilliant men? Most likely it has to do with the general downsizing of newspapers and the subsequent termination of science-based journalists. About two years ago this reversed and major newspapers like the New York Times and the Washington Post started carrying in-depth science articles.

Unfortunately, right-wing political pundits like Rush Limbaugh, filled the science void with misinformation. News organizations owned by the Australian  billionaire climate denier, Rupert Murdock, employed, printed, and gave air time to so called “experts”. These Murdock outlets of misinformation include the Wall Street Journal and Fox News.

Do not feel bad if you thought climate modelling was a sinister plot. You are not alone. The hot air coming from paid misinformers raised the temperature, and blood pressure, of many honest scientists. It will be years before the U.S. citizenry understands and accepts the truth.

Manabe’s and Hasselman’s well-earned fame is not as satisfying as it could be. I am happy they, at 89 and 90, have lasted long enough to receive the recognition they deserve.

But, by being right, they also affirmed we must act. The common refrain in the science community is, “I am happy for them. They deserve it. But, it would have been more satisfying if they were wrong.” Even Manabe and Hasselman wish they had been wrong. The bigger problem, bigger than getting climate science right, is getting politics right.

Making a difference is no longer the sole responsibility of the scientist. It is the voter’s responsibility.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model

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