190 Acting Now Protects Future Generations

 

 

                          Planning for the next Generation

Man has trouble understanding the element of time. We are particularly unable to visualize the consequences of our actions on future generations.  While we may, or may not, love our children we have trouble doing today, what is best for their tomorrow. We are especially negligent at recognizing our responsibilities to future generations in the collective.

Time, on the other hand, for scientists is always “Of the Essence”. For instance, if the current warming was slow, climate scientists would simply report their findings in a journal, and few would take notice.

But scientists know the warming is rapid and will accelerate each year. They have been warning us, and especially our elected leaders, for years…..it is sad so few of our leaders and so few of us have taken notice.

With the award of the Nobel Prize in Physics to two climate scientists, Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselman, more people have taken notice that today’s climate modeling is an accurate predictor of future weather.

In the 8^th of October edition of Science Magazine 37 scientists worked together using super computers and proven models to look at where things are going within the framework of generations. Since we are and will be for centuries, captives of this planet, the scientists thought it prudent to investigate what each generation can expect from earth’s weather. It is my guess many of the 37 scientist/authors were concerned parents. The title of their article is, “Intergenerational Inequities in the Exposure to Climate Extremes.”

Before I get into the statistics of inequities let me review the basics of climate. What keeps us warm is the ability of our atmosphere to trap some of the heat from the sun. Greenhouse gasses, (ghgs) do this. Carbon dioxide and methane are the ghgs we are adding into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels.

Hence, we are warming. Scientists know how much we will warm, or cool, by how many ghgs will be, or will not be, concentrated in the atmosphere.  

Climate scientists have long known the chance of extreme weather events increases when the global temperature increases. In fact, as a climate layman, I put together a PowerPoint presentation on extreme weather seven years ago. It correctly forecasted what has been happening in the last couple years. Unfortunately, back then, the climate science community was unable to forecast how quickly extreme weather would hammer us.  It has come faster than most thought possible.

Today scientists are better predictors because they can forecast accurately within time intervals. Thanks to the brilliant work of Manabe and Hasselman, improved climate models give us climate forecasts of not only what will happen but can place these events within time frames.

But this forecasting has an unknown factor.  The unknown factor is man’s willpower to transition to clean energy and to cease destroying the rainforests. The 37 authors of the article picked three scenarios of willpower. One is if the national signatories of the Paris Climate Accord* and their people choose to faithfully execute the pathway to meet it. Another, and a more aggressive pathway of willpower, is the pathway presented to the world’s nations to adopt the 2 degrees C pathway.  And finally, the authors considered what the weather will be like if man took the threat seriously and stopped the warming with the 1.5 degrees C pathway. The nations convening in Glasgow, Scotland this November have choices.

The next task the authors tackled was breaking down the effects on different generations for each pathway.  Generations were labeled as cohorts. For instance, if you were born in 1960 you would be in the 1960 cohort. If a child was born in 2020, the year of the study, the child would be in the 2020 cohort. Since 2020 was the year of the study it was also called the birth cohort.

Interestingly enough, all cohorts are experiencing extreme weather events at a rate unprecedented before the industrial revolution.

Included in the extreme weather category were, river floods, tropical cyclones, heat waves, wildfires, and resultant crop failures.

The good news for people in the 1965 cohort and older, those now 56 years old and older, is the rate of increase of extreme weather will rise but not dramatically in their lifetimes. 

This note worries me as the weather today already seems pretty sketchy.

If you are younger than 55 the infliction of ghg enhanced extreme weather will be drastic. Here is a way to compare. For those of us born in 1960 and before, we can expect in our lifetime to have experienced 4 +/-2 heat waves. (That is four plus or minus 2 heat waves. Or another way to understand this is we will have experienced between 2 and 6 heat waves.)

But each generation thereafter will be subjected to many more. The Birth cohort, or 2020 cohort, will be subjected to the following extreme weather events depending on our willpower to meet one of the three pathways.

For the Paris pathway it is 30 +/-9 extreme weather events.

For the 2 degree pathway it is 22 +/- 7 extreme wx events

For the 1.5 degree pathway it is 18 +/-8 extreme wx events

If you are over 55 you may remember a few extreme events. On average we will have experienced 4. Now imagine the kids coming into the world today. They can expect, on average, 30 or 22, or if their parents act now, maybe just 18 extreme heat waves in their lifetime.

As, I am sure you are starting to understand, we can save our children a lot of suffering, destruction, and death by our actions today. They can be spared billions of dollars in critical adaptation and billions cleaning up the mess extreme weather brings if we act now to reduce ghgs.

Some people, unable to cope with reality, will call this article doomsaying. No, it is not. The forecast is based on physics. Physics will not change because we deny it.

The article is optimistic. We have reasonable choices. The scientists have given us pathways for success. Success means we lay the best pathway our kids can follow to thrive and enjoy their lives.

The pathway goalposts will be set in Glasgow, Scotland this November. Let’s hope these men and women are the visionaries and good stewards of the earth our children deserve.

*If the Paris Climate Accord is the pathway chosen the earth is expected to warm at least 3 degrees C, or 5.4 F.