Legacy

 

                            OMG, more numbers!

For you who hate numbers please bear with me. As a retired helicopter pilot, I have a certain respect for numbers. Engine performance, maximum and minimum airspeeds, payloads, weather, maximum range performance, nearly everything comes down to numbers. Every time you get on a plane, you entrust yourself to the numbers scientists, engineers, test pilots, and the pilots up front have painstakingly derived and put into print.

Climate science is no different. Scientists have crunched the numbers and have committed them to print. They delivered them to our international leaders at COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland. Those leaders are our pilots. What our leaders must do is find a way to keep earth from crashing.

What are the challenging numbers? They are 50 billion tons, 1.5C, and 27%.

Mankind is discharging 50 billion tons of earth warming, climate destabilizing, greenhouse gasses per year.

Scientists are confident if we exceed a 1.5C (2.7F) degrees rise over pre-industrial temperatures earth’s climate will no longer support us. In an analogy to a multi-engine airliner, we will start losing engines.

Since we have already warmed 1.1C this does not leave us a lot of time to create a safe flight plan.

Some optimistic news is we already have the technology needed to complete a safe flight, should we choose the transition to clean energy.

Additionally, the Biden Administration has proposed legislation called, “Build Back Better”. This is a good start as it can move us forward as a nation. And internationally significant because, if we pass this legislation, it reaffirms the leadership position the United States has held in the world since WWll.

What is holding us back?

The University of Cornell found a terrifying number. It comes from the non-partisan Pew Research Poll. It says only 27% of US citizens know there is near complete consensus within the climate science community. Given the critical importance of the climate summit and Build Back Better the Cornell science students and staff decided it was important to reaffirm, (or dismiss) the consensus by doing another climate consensus analysis.

The last comprehensive analysis was done in 2013 by John Cook. He found the climate science community consensus was 97%.

The Cornell Alliance for Science team painstakingly gathered 88,125 research papers submitted by climate scientists via reputable science journals since 2012. Their new number, again establishing near unanimous consensus, is 99.212%. This high degree of consensus was the low border minimum. This means for every scientist who disagrees, who denies fossil fuel burning is the problem, at least 127 climate scientists tell us we must quit.

Here is another troubling number, 139. The 117^th Congress was polled on climate. One hundred and nine members of the House and thirty senators refused to acknowledge the scientifically proven source of climate change is fossil fuel pollution.

What is even more troubling, and I speak from personal experience, is there are many more members of congress who know the science and the consensus but do not have the courage to speak up.

If you read last week’s column the scientists have been warning us for 40 years. Thirteen of our 13 Federal Science Agencies in the last National Climate Assessment joined together to warn us we must act soon. The independent National Academy of Science has put study after study in front of our legislators with stern warnings coupled with solutions.

Why does Congress lack courage? One reason is the fossil fuel companies are huge money manipulators in Washington, D.C. If you speak up supporting science, the money vanishes.

The other problem is climate savvy citizens represent only 27% of the electorate. If you are not confident in the consensus of the experts it is near impossible to speak up.

Now, thanks to Cornell University, all citizens can be confident because when you speak up you are in full agreement with 99.212 percent of the climate science community. And speaking from experience again, they will be elated to know the truth is getting out.

Unfortunately, our Constitution was designed to protect the monied status quo. Today the monied status quo is the fossil fuel companies. This means we cannot, for a moment, remain silent when confronted with ignorance. We fight an uphill battle, but it is one we can win.

Leaning back on the aviation analogy, to be a licensed pilot takes a lot of schooling, training, tests, and check rides. When you finish and earn your wings you become a Pilot in Command. Here is federal rule #1 which you accept, “The pilot in command of an aircraft is directly responsible for, and is the final authority as to, the operation of that aircraft.”

I was given “Final Authority” based on a lot of hard work.

Democratically elected politicians are given power and authority based on an election.

Humanity has a long flight to complete a safe climate landing. Like it or not, our politicians are our pilots. If politicians ignore the science, refuse to chart a wise climate course, and are in other words, incompetent pilots it is because we did not vote intelligently or did not hold them to flying a steady course.

The beauty and the hazard of a democracy is we choose our pilots. Our political pilots will only be as competent as we are wise voters.

We have a duty to speak up. The more we help inform our friends, neighbors, and acquaintances that 99% of climate scientists know climate change is manmade the better our chances we can put competent politicians in the seats up front.