Floods, we told you so 195.

 My partner and I have been planning to visit some of my relatives in British Columbia and ski. On the 15th of November she sent me a message. Eleven BC roads to Vancouver were cut by floods. I did a search. Not only were all roads to the third largest metro area in Canada cut, but the mighty Canadian Pacific and Canadian National Railroads were too. The rails, and many of the roads, remain washed out or covered with mudslides. One train derailed because of washed out tracks.

This area, in two days, received a months worth of rain via an atmospheric river. Climate change laid siege to a city of over 2 million.

There hasn’t been much coverage of the plight of British Columbians in the US media. I wonder why? Flooding is the most expensive of all the climate change carnage in the USA.

Perhaps we are getting tired of hearing about the obvious. Flooding is increasing everywhere in places like La Paz, Vancouver, Sardinia, Germany, Egypt, Sri Lanka, China, and India. Houston in three years was slammed by three consecutive 500-year floods.

To those who oppose Build Back Better, why do you oppose funding infrastructure resiliency? A modern society depends on a robust dependable infrastructure. This is what Build Back Better attempts to provide. Wisely, BBB takes into account the fact the weather is guaranteed to, to put it mildly, become even more challenging.

One of those challenging storms occurred on the 11th of July, 2016. This was the day Saxon Harbor washed out into Lake Superior tragically killing a local hero, Mitch Koski. The deluge happened while I was deep in climate study, so a question arose in my mind. Why are these downpours so intense? I knew burning fossil fuels was pumping heat trapping gasses into the atmosphere and the oceans were warming. Obviously, warming oceans will evaporate more so it stands to reason there would be more water in the air. In fact, scientists and meteorologists calculated there is 7% more moisture in the air since preindustrial times. But should 7% more water vapor result in so much flooding?

It took me awhile but by the Spring of 2017 I had put together a PowerPoint presentation. I had sent it to chemistry and physics professors for verification. I had also shown it to a senior atmospheric scientist from NOAA at an NMU presentation. He found my work accurate, but he said my estimate of climate violence was understated. In fact, he said my prediction of extreme flooding, “…did not scratch the surface.”

I presented my work at a few local venues. There are a few curious residents here. Thanks to the local science teachers who sent their students needing extra credit, there was enough of a crowd to give me the impression people cared.

Since then, I have not reflected on my detailed connect-the-climate-dots presentation. That is until a senior climate scientist at Woodswell Climate Research Center, Jennifer Francis, wrote a piece called, “Vapor Storms” for the Scientific American.*

While I am sure Scientist Francis did not base her article on my PowerPoint, the article paralleled my presentation. I wrote to her and jokingly chided her that a retired helicopter pilot had beat her to the climate punch by five years! I have not heard back.

So, if you are curious why 7% more moisture in the world’s atmosphere is so lethal you can ask me to dust off my projector. Or, you can find the Scientific American article.

You might think I take satisfaction in the preciseness of my work. Pride yes, but not satisfaction. The most satisfying thing I could experience is discovering I have been wrong all along and have wasted eight years of my life. I could live with that. Unfortunately, human caused climate change is not a hoax and what we are experiencing is not a natural cycle. Anthropogenic warming, that’s what you and I and the rest of humanity do, is the cause of more flooding.  

Politicians who tell us climate change is a hoax or a natural cycle are either science illiterate or they are lying. There is no wiggle room on this issue. There never was.

If anyone claims either of these two false assertions challenge them. Simply ask, “Are you sure 99% of the world’s climate scientists are wrong? What if they are right?” **

*1  To find the Vapor Storms article search:  “Scientific American November Vapor Storms”

*2 To find the 99% climate consensus search: “Cornell Climate Consensus Study”

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