A Yoopers Last Words - 225

 I have a postcard which says, “Yooper’s Last Words, Hold my Beer, Watch This!”. For me it is one bookend on a subject called risk management.

My good friend and former Law Enforcement Officer likes to tell people there really is no such thing as an accident, only people who act without thinking, foresight, or knowledge. In other words, those who have not incorporated risk management in their lives find disaster. If you trace back the chain of events, he stresses, all accidents are avoidable.

And so it is with climate change. The current climate disasters were avoidable, and future disasters are avoidable if we are good risk managers.

When I first started my career aviation safety was stressed. But the pre-flight act of analyzing risk was not quantified. The Coast Guard and civilian medical helicopter evacuation (medevac helicopters) had high accident rates.

Investigators, when evaluating the causes and the chain of events leading to accidents discovered the same avoidable causes. What was needed was a means of quantifying risk BEFORE the flight. Led by the Coast Guard, other branches of the military, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) created decision matrixes to quantify risk factors. To manage risk, the risk factors are given numerical values and added together. The final tally gives the pilot in command, (PIC) an overall risk factor.  The matrix process involves reviewing the mechanical condition of the aircraft, what instrumentation is installed and working, the weather, the experience of the crew, and the health of the crew.

These risk numerical factors are added up.  If the total risk is too high the PIC must find a way to lower them. If the risks cannot be sufficiently mitigated, the PIC must consult with the next higher officer in the chain of command to find ways to lower the risk.

Flights during peacetime that cannot be initiated at an acceptable risk are canceled. You do not start a flight unless you are sure you can get your team back alive.

In my seven years of medivac flying the number one flight priority was not to rescue victims. Rescuing victims was our mission and we were good at it.  My primary priority was to keep the nurse and paramedic alive. These highly skilled professionals, over the span of their careers, will save many lives. It would be ridiculous to jeopardize the lives of these experienced lifesavers by ignoring a risk assessment.

Risk assessment has proven itself dramatically effective in aviation. Can we apply risk management to climate change action?

Yes, of course.  We know the threat is real. Scientists warned us. James Hansen was spot on in 1988. We know the primary cause of climate change is man burning fossil fuels.  It has taken 34 years of solid science data to finally disgrace the oil companies and their fake “think tanks”. These organizations denied climate warming was happening. Later, after their indefensible position of denying global warming was disgraced, they denied burning fossil fuels was the cause. Again, they have had to abandon this indefensible position in the face of irrefutable science.

Today the same oil funded “think tanks” have created a new argument. They say, “Yes climate change is real, and man is responsible but changing the energy system will be too expensive.”

Risk assessment destroys this argument. We know we have warmed 1 degree C or 1.8 degrees F since the beginning of the industrial revolution. (Ref NOAA and NASA). Without intervention it is predicted we will warm another .3 to 1.7C / .5 to 1.3 F in 20 years. If we do not intervene the earth is expected to warm between 2.6C to 4.8C / 4.7 to 8.6 degrees F by 2100. These numbers change slightly as scientists refine their analysis.  

Here are two facts. First, as I listened to a premier veteran climate scientist today, Michael Mann, historical projections by scientists he warned us have been too conservative. The weather we experience today is more extreme than predicted.

Second, any reduction in carbon emissions we do today saves future generations avoidable misery. If we can reduce our carbon emissions by half in ten years we will be doing our progeny a great service.

As you can see scientists give us a spread of temperatures. The spread is there because scientists looking forward do not know what governments will do to save the planet. They have to make assumptions. For you and I the spread is irrelevant. Apply the principles of risk management! If there is a predicted chance of disaster make the changes needed to survive.

Scientists have given us a target temperature. This is a temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius. (C). Admittedly, 2 degrees will not save people on low lying oceanic islands or areas turning too dry or too hot to survive.  These poor souls will be climate refugees.

But, with expensive adaptation, most peoples, especially in the rich western nations, are expected to weather climate change if we remain under a warming of 2 degrees Celsius.

If we exceed 2 degrees C all bets are off. It is expected warming over 3 C will destabilize civilization.  A rise of 8.6 C will make much of the earth, if not most of the earth, uninhabitable. Scientists admit they cannot tell us exactly what will transpire if the earth pasts the 2C threshold, but the RISK is undeniable. If we do not act decisively now, we will miss the opportunity to escape the worst.

What if you boarded a plane and the pilot came over the intercom and said, “Welcome aboard. I’ve looked at the weather and it not good. We could fly around a massive storm but that would be expensive. Because of the added expense, we are sticking with the status quo route. I cannot say for sure, but I wouldn’t bet on us making it.  If you do not like my analysis, take comfort in the fact your ticket was cheap and the beer is cold.”

Let’s put the beer down. We are all flying around the sun on the same planet. Wise use of risk management will dramatically reduce the chance of a catastrophic end. With life comes risk.  Intelligent people manage risk and live long rewarding lives.

For another discussion on risk management search out Jerry Taylor’s OP-ED in the May 21^st, 2019 edition in, “The Bulwark” titled, “What Changed My Mind About Climate Change”