Truth from Rot - 238

 A Lot of People are Saying

When I was about a year into my global warming research my investigations lead to no credible information indicating it was not happening. There were, though, many and various theories which conflicted with the consensus that man is warming the earth by burning fossil fuels. Skeptical Science .com has identified 217 denial myths and denial conspiracy theories. The website is a great reference point to start any climate investigation.

After months of investigation, it was my naïve belief I could effectively bring science to the climate conversation and dispel the false theories.

Note I admit I was naïve. In many quarters facts are of no value.  I wish I had first read the book, “A Lot of People are Saying” before I started my years of climate work.

According to the authors, professors Robert Clements and Nancy Rosenblum, many citizens of the USA fail to question the validity of conspiracy theories. Instead of engaging in the work required to know if conspire claims are true or false many people listen exclusively to their tribal leaders rejecting anything else.  Truth, under these circumstances, has a very difficult time penetrating the conscientiousness.

For instance, one Republican politician accused the Chinese of creating a climate change hoax even though most climate science has been done by USA and European scientists. This was quite a conspiracy theory. If such a statement was true it means over 10,000 climate scientists, all the reputable science organizations worldwide and, all the signatories to the Paris Climate Accord fell for it!

Before I continue, let’s find a little common ground on conspiracies. Throughout history there have been numerous documented conspiracies. It only follows that we are justifiably suspicious when things “appear” to be shady. When we are suspicious, sometimes we create theories in an attempt to explain what the heck is going on.

The theory system becomes dangerous when we do not follow through and investigate a theory (Ours or somebody else’s). We all have preconceived ideas and often our contrived theories are weak. When we put together our theory too often it leans on our preconceived ideas, (confirmation bias). Or, we see a self-benefit to our theory, (motivated reasoning). Or, by agreeing with someone else’s theory we cement our position within the tribe, (partisan bias).

We are all human, so we all do this to some extent. To make sure we are not creating a false theory, (a lie), we must be skeptical of our own mind first. Any decent conspiracy theory has facts (or pseudo facts) and these have to be tied together in a logical fashion as in “connect the dots.” A diligent citizen must ask,” Are the dots verifiable facts and are these dots connected by a reasonable train of thought?”

If we have what we think is a credible conspiracy theory, we may want to share it with friends before we paste it on a social media platform.

Good friends will politely shoot holes in our theories. The act of respectively discussing theories is important. A successful society indulges in civil discourse. Through civil discourse we often discover mutual values and facts.  This interaction leads to what we call common sense. A successful society must have a community common sense.

On the flip side to “like” or pass on a weak or ugly theory on social media platforms is irresponsibly destructive.

The professors writing this book make an uncomfortable but well documented observation. Many people pass on gossip conspiracies which have no verified facts and lack any reasoned argument. Our colloquial saying for this is, “They did not connect the dots”. And in many cases, there aren’t even any dots!

Our ability to sort out reasonable conspiracies from fake conspiracies, according to the authors of “A lot of People are Saying” has fallen apart. In the past it was fashionable, and thought responsible when formulating a conspiracy, to string together facts to create a theory listeners or readers could then analyze. Today, it seems, many of us have dropped the need for facts at all. In other words, many members of our society fall for conspiracies minus any theory.

Do you recall hearing politicians saying, “You know a lot of people are saying bad things are happening out there.”, or “I would love to know more. What I know is troubling enough.”, or “Many people have come out and said I am right.”, or “A lot of people are saying.”

Challenges to these fact-less claims were sometimes met with, “Fake News!”, or “Rigged Elections!”, or “Witch Hunt!”.

Here is my advice. If there are no facts offered by people proposing a conspiracy theory ask, “Who are the people saying this and what are their qualifications?”. Unless the person uttering these accusations comes up with something reasonable just say, “I am sorry, but your conspiracy theory lacks substance. I do not believe it. But I am interested and if you uncover supporting facts, please bring this up to me again.”

Let’s get back to the good old days when people who created conspiracy theories had to work a little.  Innuendo and “A lot of People are Saying” are the marks of a dull and lazy conspiracy theorist. Worse yet, if we accept weak conspiracies, we are lazy too.

The text of the book is 176 pages long. The authors list 316 references making it easy for us to verify their resources. This is an example of finding facts and connecting them in credible argument.  Their conspiracy argument is that our democracy is under assault and if we want to keep our democracy we must stand up and speak up.

If you value our democracy call and encourage your local library to buy this book printed by Princeton.  It cost me thirteen dollars on Amazon. I bet your library can afford it.

About the Authors: Robert Clements is Professor of Democracy and Politics at Dartmouth College. Nancy L Rosenblum is Professor of Ethics in Politics and Government at Harvard.