COP27 and Numbers - 241

Numbers tell a story…sometimes, very well

I try to grasp what numbers are trying to tell me by making comparisons. The recent floods in Pakistan are an example. Pakistan is particularly exposed to the ravages of climate change. The Pakistani rivers running down from the Himalaya Ice Fields are fed by over 7,000 glaciers. These are melting faster as the world warms from heat trapped by fossil fuel emissions. Today snow that replenishes these glaciers often comes down instead as rain and runs off into rivers quickly. The monsoon this year came off the warm Indian Ocean with a staggering load of water. The Balochistan and Sindh Pakistani provinces had four times their average rainfall.

The resultant floods were epic. Nearly one third of the country was inundated. At one point over six million people were without shelter. Six million homeless people… how many people is six million?

Comprehending this number is difficult. I tried to find a meaningful comparison. Here is what I came up with. If I started at the Mackinaw Bridge and drove across the UP through every town and then drove through Hurley and zig-zagged my way south through Madison and then Milwaukee I would have passed six million people.

In your mind take this trip. Imagine as you look out the window of your car all the people you pass by are without a roof over their heads, little to eat, no clean water and exposed to the elements. Brutal! This is six million people in dire straits.

Flooding is becoming the new normal as people are exposed to storms coming off climate warming oceans.

In other parts of the world, it is worse. Sub-Saharan Africa is getting hotter and drier. It is estimated by the World Bank by 2050, 86 million people in Africa could be on the move trying to find food, water, and security. I haven’t found a way to conceptualize 86 million people wandering around looking for a meal and a clean glass of water.

And worse yet, the World Bank’s “Groundswell” report says globally there could be as many as 216 million people uprooted within their own countries by the ravages of climate change by 2050.

Suffering and disruption on this scale is unimaginable.

But, we are not left without hope. The report says if we and our world partners start immediate and concerted action to reduce global emissions, and support green, inclusive, and resilient development, we can reduce the scale of climate disaster by employing mitigation by as much as 80 percent.

The world is turning the corner on climate. We can play a vital role. The Inflation Reduction Act makes the transition to clean energy attainable for most of us. The US government is using the carrot in the “carrot and stick” approach to aid us in the transition.

80% of 216 million is 173 million humans. If we are aggressive, make the changes we can, and lead the way we have the possibility of keeping 173 million people home, fed, and happy.

But what if we are unable to fully turn things around? What if instead of 80% of the people who are threatened to be uprooted, we are only able to protect 3%? My friends, 3% of 216 million is six million people and we know how big that number is.

Don’t get lost in the numbers. If you make a change to clean the air of your fossil fuel emissions, you are helping to save someone. And if it is only 1, then in that case, 1 is a very big number.

To access the “Groundswell Report” search Groundswell World Bank.