GLISA High Points 246

Last week I introduced you to the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments team which is tasked to evaluate what has happened in the past, what is happening now, and what kind of climate we can expect in the future. Their goal is to make our Great Lakes States more resilient and safer in the face of climate change.

In this column I will hit some of the high points. First off, how much have we warmed? Since 1953 average temperatures have warmed 2.3 degrees F. While the air temperature over the great lakes region has risen 2.3 F, Lake Superior surface temperatures have warmed a whopping 4.5F.

There are many reasons Superior has warmed so much faster but the primary is lack of ice cover. This warms the lake in a couple ways. Ice cover and snow reflect light back to outer space but open water absorbs the light and converts it to heat. (the scientific term for reflectivity is albedo).

 Also, ice cools whatever it is in contact with as it melts. It absorbs heat from anything around it at a rate of 80 calories per gram of ice. It works well keeping our Great Lakes cool in the spring just like it keeps our drinks cold in the summer.

Both factors are also contributing to a warmer late winter. This season is the fastest warming period annually.  

How much more the Great Lakes States and their coveted waters warm is up to us and how fast US citizens take advantage of the money on the table provided by the INFLATION REDUCTION ACT. If we take advantage of the free money and upgrade and modernize our lifestyles, we will slow fossil fuel pollution and climate change.

The future projections given by the GLISA scientists reflect the unknown rate humans will employ to mitigate fossil fuel pollution. Will we employ efficiency and clean energy in our lifestyles? If we do act, GLISA projects we will experience a further 3F temperature increase by 2050 if we act rapidly. If we do not act, they predict a 6F temperature increase by 2050.

Looking out to 2100, the rise in temperatures will vary between 6F (if we act), or 11F (if our efforts are weak).

Precipitation in the Great Lakes Region has risen 14% since 1951. This trend is expected to continue although there will be major variations year to year and within any year.

Reflecting this trend of wild variations in precipitation, we are already experiencing a dramatic increase in multi-day heavy rain events  and recent snow events. The heaviest precipitation events happen in 1% of storms. From 1958 to 2016 these one percent storms have increased 42% in the Midwest.

Our money generating precipitation, called snow, may temporarily increase as the Great Lakes Ice cover diminishes. Less ice means more evaporation which feeds lake effect snow. If we have the right cold winds off the lake, we will continue to get lake effect snow.

In the long term, though, failing to act aggressively means temperatures will rise. If they are above 32F when the storms arrive, we will get rain. The prognosis for our winter sport businesses depends on our rapid transition to clean energy.

There is another wild card to lake effect snow called the Arctic Oscillation, AO which is responsible for the “Cold Air Outbreaks” which rip down from the arctic and freeze places like powerplants in Texas and water pipes in Mississippi. 

If we get a substantial cold air outbreak with winds off an open Lake Superior, we could get the mother of all lake effect storms.

Regarding the changing AO, the scientific community is thoroughly studying it but has not come to a consensus. It appears the AO is changing and outbreaks of short-term cold air masses are hitting us more often and running further south. We know the arctic and arctic ocean are the most rapidly warming earth regions due to the same factors warming Lake Superior. This warming may be dramatically changing the normally stable Polar Vortex.

I will note the most troubling aspect of rapid climate change is the rate of warming in the arctic. The arctic has a lot of locked up methane and carbon dioxide in the tundra. If we let this melt our kid’s climate future may melt away with it.

There are a lot more predictions by GLISA like the potential of freezing rain, effects on agriculture, algae blooms, animal migrations, the health of our forests, our fish, and our wild animals.

If you are interested in what our future climate will look like, search “GLISA” or “glisa.umich.edu.” Each area I discussed is well referenced and you can dive deeper into any subject area by pursuing the links GLISA provides.