Joy in Data - 292

It is unequivocal we are altering the earth’s atmosphere rapidly, with dreadful results, but should this fact immobilize us? That would be succumbing to cynical defeatism.

We have heard deniers tell us it isn’t happening. Now defeatists are the new cynics telling us we can’t win. After reading this column, do some research by checking out the references I used for this column. Is our rapid technological progress going to propel us to sustainability? When you have finished your information quest, I hope you know we can win the race to save the planet.

I have been in this battle for ten years. I consider myself somewhat reasonable. If my systematic research of reputable science organizations told me the climate fight could not be won, why would I have devoted ten years of my life to getting us to act? Would I have started on this mission or continued to press on with the message to decarbonize if I did not think we could win? No, I have innumerable other interests which are more fun. 

Ten years ago, my research revealed 97% of practicing climate scientists were in consensus that we were putting out too much carbon pollution. In 2016, climate scientists who denied the rapid increase in greenhouse gasses (ghgs) were the cause of global warming made up only 3% of the climate scientists. Today, less than one in one hundred climate scientists deny it. That is less than 1%.

Yet despite the science we have denial. If we compare public denial of climate change with other countries, we have the highest percentage of deniers of any country except Israel. The United States public has been slow to catch up, but it is. Today, deniers make up only 22% of our population.

With denying slowly dying, the new threat to progress is doomsaying. Doomsaying saps moral strength. Like denial, doomsaying is misinformation proliferated by oil companies. They aim to make us think it is too late to decarbonize or too difficult. Of course, if people believe this propaganda, we will fail.

Many scientists are working hard to combat deniers and doomsayers to ensure we succeed. One of them is taking doomists head-on. She uses something natural to scientists but often ignored by the  rest of us. Hannah Ritchie uses data. Scientist Richie is the lead researcher at The University of Oxford’s Program on Global Development. The publication she and her team publish is called “Our World in Data.”

Hannah, at 30, is a woman who wants to one day raise a family. At one time, she was emotionally overwhelmed with doom-laden climate stories. She decided to dig into the data to see if all was lost. She discovered there is hope.  Her data reveals incredible human progress which has the potential to become a realistic vision of a sustainable, livable future.

 Here is a list of scientific breakthroughs she has provided to help us understand why we should be optimistic. Her data gives us a clear message: human progress results from relentless scientific progress.

In 1820, there were no vaccinations. Child mortality was 43%. Only 12% of the population could read. And 79% of the population lived in extreme poverty. (Extreme poverty is defined as making less than $2.15 a day).

Now, 86% of the world’s population is vaccinated. Child mortality is 4%. 86% of the world can read. And only 8% of the world’s population must get by on $2.15/day.

The standard of living from 1990 to 2019, measured by GDP, of the United Kingdom, USA, Germany, and France, has, on average, risen 47%.

At the same time, the amount of CO2 pushed out by these countries decreased by 30%. In other words, our standard of living is separate from how much coal, oil, or gas we burn.

The machinery that drives our economy does not care if the energy comes from wood, coal, oil, gas, hydro, nuclear, solar, wind, or butterfly wings.

But, of course, nature cares. If we stuck with wood, there would be no more trees. If petroleum had never been discovered for lamps, there would be no whales in the sea. (Whales were hunted for the oil rendered from their bodies to light lamps.)

We have changed and adapted over and over. It is simply time to change once again. If we cannot transition away from coal, oil, and gas, a lovely day in the future may be hard to find for our kids. Is being kind to future generations a motivator? If not, how about money?

In 1970, it cost a person putting up solar panels $115 per watt of energy delivered. By 2021, the cost reduced to $.27 per watt. Scientists and engineers brought the price down 99.8%. It is only getting better: the MIT Technology Review reports new Tandam Silicon/Perovskite solar panels will significantly increase efficiency even more.

Wind cost per watt delivered has had an almost identical trajectory of lower cost and improved efficiency.

Wind and Solar are now, almost everywhere, the cheapest form of energy.

In 1990, if you were to build an electrical vehicle, an EV, using batteries with the same energy storage as those we have today, the battery would have cost $500,000. By 2021, the cost has decreased to $5,000 to $12,000. That is a price drop of 98%. And we are still improving. Leaps in battery technology have prompted companies to build 30 new battery plants in the USA, driving costs down even more. New lithium deposits are being discovered to keep these battery plants humming. And some new battery technologies may not even need Lithium. 

Because of these advances, production of internal combustion (ICE is gas and diesel engine-powered cars) peaked in 2017. In 2011 (.1%) of all car sales worldwide were EVs. In 2022, EVs made up 14% of new car sales.

The scientists of “Our World in Data,” who gather data and strive to present it in a meaningful format are worthy of our attention. With data, we know where we are, where we must go, and how fast. If we do not commit ourselves to acquiring accurate information, our brains will wander around like someone walking over uneven terrain on a moonless, starless night. We will vote for leaders who are equally unbalanced and who will eventually lead us over a cliff.

Scientist Richie is not a Pollyanna. She urges us, “We need to go much faster.” She implores us to contribute as best we can by reducing food waste, eating less meat, insulating our homes, walking, cycling, and using public transport. When buying a new furnace or air conditioner, she encourages us to do both simultaneously by buying a super-efficient heat pump. 

It is time to use data when communicating with others, especially the young. They need to know sustainability is achievable. 

Suggestions for further understanding:

“Hannah Richie: Doomsday Predictions are a Dream for Climate Deniers” Guardian

“What if People do not Need to Care about Climate Change to Fix it?” the New York Times

“The US Energy Transition Explained in 8 Numbers” Scientific American 8Jan2024

“Super-efficient Solar Cells” and “Heat Pumps” MIT Technology Review 2024

YouTube: Hannah Ritchie, “Are We the Last Generation-or The First Sustainable One?”

New Book: “Not the End of the World” by Hannah Ritchie