Depression No - 305

I still have friends, which is a puzzle. If you are around me or in my home, you either hear me talk about climate change or look at piles of science magazines and climate-related books. 

If you like science, it is interesting to inspect my stacks of literature. It is just repetitive, and these days, it can be disheartening. Two summers ago, I was visiting my much-loved relatives in Canada. I listed some provocative climate facts.

In response, my cousin Lou said, "I hate to say it, but I find this depressing." 

To which I said, "You should be me."

For Canadians, last year was a year of forest fire-induced national depression. Few, if any, deniers are left in Canada. But, just like here, factions are pushing the use of oil. The Canadian factions, unsurprisingly, congregate in Alberta.

Last year, a Super El Nino on climate change steroids hijacked our UP winter. Temperature records are being crushed worldwide, and floods are large and frequent. Humanity used to blame God, saying, "It was an act of God." Non-believers would blame disasters on the whims of Mother Nature. This was understandable. Before science we blamed God or Mother Nature. 

I am a wee bit jealous of folks who get their news from Fox News. If you watch Fox News, bad climate news and science-based analysis exist in snippets devoid of scientific context. Weather news without current scientific explanation might lead us to believe all weather is still just acts of a divine being. We might erroneously think we play no part and are guiltless.

Since following the climate carnage is my duty, the volume of suffering from flood after flood has taken its toll on me. I have found a way to minimize my exposure. Rather than dragging out searches with dreadful story after dreadful story, I do one search at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts or ECMWF.  They have a section called Floodwatch. Here is a partial list of countries with significant flooding events: Uruguay, Argentina, Indonesia, France, Brazil, Oman, and the UAE (Dubai).  

The Dubai flooding caught my eye since I often ported there with the Military Sealift Command. I am curious about the torrential downpours there because, in all my many days in Dubai, I do not remember seeing a single cloud. 

It is challenging for ordinary people to understand whether a flood is a normal weather cycle, a phenomenon caused by climate change, or both. 

In 2011, when I first started my studies, the analysis of the effects of climate change were imprecisely summed up by Kevin Trenberth of our National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). He said, "The environment in which all storms form has changed owing to human activities."  In other words, while scientists couldn't quantify how much the burning of fossil fuels affected the weather, all weather was being affected.

In 2015, a core team of climate scientists called the World Weather Attribution group started analyzing extreme storms to sort out the role human-created global warming played in increasing extreme weather.  At first, it took months to analyze current and historical data leading up to any storm. Now, they have improved the process, which is down to weeks. The reports are divided into two parts. One determines how likely a storm is to occur because of global warming. The second part determines how much more rain was attributable to anthropogenic heating. For example, they summed up their analysis of Storm Daniel. This storm decimated the Libyan city of Derna last September. They said the chances of this storm striking the city were 50 times more likely, resulting in 50% more rainfall due to the earth's warming caused by burning fossil fuels.

With the many and intensive floods hitting various places worldwide, the World Weather Attribution group has fortunately shortened the time needed to determine responsibility. 

Unfortunately, the attribution group, while hardworking, has only so much time. These specialists must pick which extreme weather events to analyze. With so many cases of extreme weather, many events will never be examined.

To keep things simple, I use Kevin Trenberth's statement from 2011. Today, it's always both natural cycles and climate change. Since we know the cause of climate change, we also know that if we do not act to eliminate emissions, the storms will worsen.

This is a challenge but should not be depressing. We no longer wander around wondering if God or Mother Nature has had it in for us. We know the problem. We know the solutions. We must get behind the men and women who will deploy the solutions.

Historical Note: NASA Goddard Director James Hansen wrote the book, "Storms of My Grandchildren" in 2009.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Legacy

Legacy is the masterpiece of Yann Artur-Bertrand. It is a must watch 1 hour and 41-minute documentary offered on Amazon Prime. (Prime is available for free on a one-month trial basis.) Inspired by his love of nature and humanity Bertrand has taken the wisdom attained through 50 years of observing nature and employed his mastery of film to give us a spellbinding history of earth and man. At this critical juncture in man’s ascent, it is his passion, a grandfather’s passion to protect his grandchildren, which drives him to excel at 76. If we look back to the days of Leonardo De Vinci or Michelangelo these geniuses had a very small audience with whom to communicate, to make a positive impression, and to create change. They communicated primarily with the aristocracy and the clergy.   There was no need to influence the masses since the common man was not involved in decision making. Commoners could not even read or write. Democracy has widened the base of decision making. By voting ...
Read more

Your Hero: Plato or Joe the Plumber?

My appreciation for the plumber came to me from opposite directions. As a semi-successful do-it-yourself plumber, I slowly learned a bit about the trade. I learned that when the sewer starts to backup plumbers should be reached by dialing 911.   Sorry Plato, you lose round one. But, what about the history of plumbing and its importance to human civilization? Plumbing history came to me accidentally.    While employed by the Military Sealift Command, I was “stuck” on the Island of Crete. Being stuck on Crete is not a hardship. In fact, you might pray that you suffer this fate one day. Before docking, I read in National Geographic, about an ancient civilization on Crete called the Minoan. In its heyday, young nimble girls would leap over charging bulls at festivals. In a way it was like modern Olympic gymnastics springboard competition between the horns. The article said there were frescos on preserved walls of the ancient Palace of Knossos depicting the event. ...
Read more

Becoming Wise Gardeners

Often, when we talk about saving the earth’s climate we talk about the number one problem, the need to switch energy sources from polluting and archaic fossil fuels to modern clean energy sources. More so, I enjoy reading and learning about the second simultaneous step we need to take to save the climate. Some of the Carbon Dioxide must be removed from the air and stored. Scientists use the terms Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS), or Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) to describe this. When carbon is captured it must be used or safely put somewhere. Today it is pumped back into the earth into old mines or oil fields. These mines and oil fields are called “sinks”. Mother Nature has a lot of natural sinks. For instance, I am sitting in my favorite rocking chair listening to music. My chair and my speakers are made of wood. Alive, or dead, a tree and its commercial product timber, are natural carbon sinks. In fact, any plant is a carbon sink. Far and away the best carbon sink...
Read more