Where is Winter Going - 304

2023 was the warmest year, smoking the previous record set in 2016 by .27 degrees F. The 2023 rise was the single most significant leap ever recorded.

One cause of this massive warming worldwide was the natural El Nino cycle, another was climate change, and another element we missed was early snow.

Many people, those psychologically unable to accept 150 years of climate science or who fail to consult the world's most respected science organizations, will exclusively blame the weather phenomenon called El Nino.

Other people like to simplify life into "either/or" binary thinking. Decision-making for them is like lighting a room with an on-and-off switch.

 Some problem-solving is binary, but our earth is a complicated life system. Scientists continually discover switches that shed light on our living planet. Many switches are not binary, but are like slider switches that gradually light our minds with understanding as we strive to understand.

Locally, our disastrous winter was due to at least three switches. First, we did not get an early heavy snow. We used to get them around Thanksgiving. Early blankets of snow reflect sunlight and accelerate winter cooling. Scientists call this the albedo effect.

El Nino is the big weather switch driven by hot Pacific Ocean Waters. The Pacific warms unevenly, with the hot waters building up near Indonesia and Australia. This massive blob of hot waters migrates east every two to seven years when the trade winds weaken. The typical La Nina weather pattern we rely on for productive winter snow is then overwhelmed, resulting in a snow drought. El Ninos runs like a slider switch. Some are weak, and some are strong. The one we just endured was called a super El Nino.    

Global warming is the third slow-motion slider switch that humanity has been relentlessly pushing up with greenhouse gases. This is an unnatural man-activated "Anthropogenic" switch. Worldwide, burning fossil fuels has pushed this switch up fast.  

The UP and Northern Wisconsin have not been spared. According to data from the University of Wisconsin's Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, Wisconsin has warmed 5 to 6 degrees F since 1950.

As we plan in the short term, we can expect slightly wetter and shorter winters based on the direction the data points. Cold, snowy winters may still occur, as weather is highly variable. However, in general, we cannot expect temperatures to cease warming until 2050, and then only if we cease emissions by 2050, which is the drop-dead date the National Academies challenges us to meet.

What about the long term? One climate scientist we can lean on is University of New Hampshire Research Scientist Elizabeth Burakowski. She informs us that the Northeast has lost two to three weeks of snow cover in the last 100 years.

She informs us that snow-making technology has masked much of the commercial ill effects of a shortening winter. Downhill skiing has significantly benefited from these technologies. Even cross-country skiing has shifted to artificial snow, as evidenced by the World Cup race in Minneapolis and the Birkebeiner in Hayward. These races were held on meandering, narrow, manufactured snow trails six miles long.

She also informs us that some of our problems with getting winter recreation enthusiasts to our neck of the woods are psychological. A good friend who ran a ski shop in the UP and later switched to a kayak business said, "If the folks in the big cities down south do not see snow out their doors, they lose the desire and they forget we have it."

In the long run, Scientist Burakowski says, physics will prevail. If we get too warm, the winter sports industry as we know it now will not survive. To protect winter recreation and our associated businesses, she informs us that we must advocate for government policy to arrest global warming. One climate advocacy organization she has worked with and recommends is "Protect Our Winters." If you love the outdoors, this is a fine climate organization to join.

Most El Ninos are not as strong as the one that left the snowmobile trails bare this last winter. What is unsettling is that the oceans worldwide are warming alarmingly fast. Hot Pacific waters drive Super El Ninos, leading me to fear we will have more Super El Ninos. It is still unresolved, but scientists are trying to answer this question.

In the meantime, people and communities who snow farm for a living should, as  Steve Varvus, Director of the Wisconsin State Climatology Office, says, "… be prepared for a different kind of winter in the future. That means adapting,"